The battle between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Mike Johnson over Ukraine aid and immigration policy is coming to a head this week as Congress races to avert a Jan. 20 partial lapse in government funding.
Leaders in both parties, concerned about the political fallout from a shutdown, announced the contours of a spending plan Sunday that includes neither $61 billion in aid to Ukraine that Biden has sought nor stringent border protections that conservatives demand. Ukraine is approaching the third year in its war against Russia and is now at its greatest peril of losing U.S. financial support. And a compromise on immigration, with Republicans demanding a once-in-generation overhaul of policies in exchange for their support on Ukraine, remains elusive. Without a government spending bill to force Ukraine and a border package through Congress quickly, the two now risk languishing indefinitely. Biden and Johnson, strangers until Johnson won the speakership in November, and their Senate allies are negotiating all of this against the backdrop of a 2024 election in which the worsening U.S. migrant crisis and Donald Trump’s America First isolationism will be dominant themes.
It’s a career-defining moment for Johnson, who has had a shaky hold on his new job in a narrow Republican majority, and for Biden, whose lagging poll numbers threaten his likely rematch against Trump. And, as Senate talks drag on, it’s increasingly likely the negotiations will come down to the speaker and the president. As Congress returns from a holiday break, Johnson still aims to use Ukraine aid to squeeze Biden into accepting immigration changes. Falling short on immigration — particularly as ultra-conservatives loudly opposed Sunday’s spending deal — could set Johnson up for an ignominious ouster by a handful of renegades.
Biden has his own political risks. A deal with Johnson could defuse one of his greatest weaknesses: a record surge of migrants that has strained services in Democratic strongholds like northern cities. If Biden goes too far, though, he risks alienating party progressives, something he can’t afford. Biden’s approval rating in the latest Gallup poll was 39%.